Turkey: Is the three-year old government coming to an end?

The first of a series of seminars organized by the London Centre for Social Studies was given by Mehmet Simsek, director and strategist at Merrill Lynch, at the London School of Economics, entitled: ‘Turkey: Is the three-year old government coming to an end?’ explained in detail the phenomenal progress the Turkish economy had made under the AKP government in the last three years but warned that despite this and the many reforms made, Turkey is still vulnerable to possible recessions in the world economy. Speaking to young academics at LSE, Mr Simsek pointed out that it looked very unlikely that there was any going back in Turkey to the bleak times and that Turkey was now the 6th largest economy in Europe, currently growing three to four times the EU trend growth.While Mr. Simsek pointed out that the current GDP in Turkey is still approximately one–third of its EU counterparts, he stressed that the young workforce in Turkey was its best bet in addressing this imbalance in the near future. According to Mr. Simsek, the fact that Turkey has successfully reduced its inflation rate from 60 per cent to single figures, the political stability established and maintained, its young and educated workforce and regional advantages in being well-placed for the European, Middle-Eastern, Asian and African markets all at once makes it very attractive for foreign investors.On the basis of his analysis, Mr Simsek therefore concluded his seminar by stating that it was very likely that the AKP government would surely last to the 2007 elections and is more likely than not to win a second term based on the economic improvements achieved so far.